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Kevin Matthews
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
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Location: Eugene, Oregon
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Richard Haut
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Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1165
Location: Nice, France
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 Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2008 2:42 am Post subject: |
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With the coldest winter in 100 years anticipated (ice-storms in China, Kenya) and a 30% growth in Arctic ice Aug 07 to Aug 08 (NASA, University of Illinois) and the ice-growth season in October at near-record levels (sources: look anywhere - it is widely reported), the article by the WWF's Dr. Tin makes curious reading.
Fear-mongering may be a sure-fire winner in America, but it really - excuse the phrase - cuts little ice elsewhere.
Having just been to the official launch of Nice's bid for the 2018 Winter Olympic Games, I will side with Mayor Christian Estrossi's view of ecological responsibility and durability.
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Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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Kevin
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Joined: 13 Apr 2004
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Location: Eugene, Oregon
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| Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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Richard, thanks for commenting on this article!
Of course I have a somewhat different perspective. The climate system is noisy. The temperature variation just about every single every day, almost everywhere on earth, is greater than even the high range of projected overall average temperature increases decades from now.
Yet a small change in the overall average number, for something as huge as the Earth's climate system, can represent a devastating shift.
This is why the systematic measuring, careful record-keeping, and statistical analysis of real science is needed to understand the predicament we have created.
And this is why specific instances of weather variation for a given season, in a given region or locale, really don't mean much either way with regards to climate change. General press headlines notwithstanding...
In any case, here are some words from the Nature web site with regard to the question of the trend in Arctic sea ice cover...
http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2008/10/has_arctic_summer_sea_ice_tipp.html
"The seasonal minimum for 2008, occurring on 14 September, entered the books as the second-lowest of the satellite era, probably the second-lowest of at least a century, and just behind the standing record set in 2007.
"Barely second-lowest still came as a shock, given the cooler weather this year. Said Stroeve in an NISDC press release, “I find it incredible that we came so close to beating the 2007 record — without the especially warm and clear conditions we saw last summer. I hate to think what 2008 might have looked like if weather patterns had set up in a more extreme way. ”
"August 2008 saw the fastest melt ever recorded, according to NASA. And ice volume, a bellwether for the future, probably was at its lowest this year - an observation that hasn’t reached the broadsheets (but see Climate Progress and Stoat)."
For more detail...
http://climateprogress.org/2008/10/02/nsidc-stunner-arctic-ice-at-likely-record-low-volume/ |
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Richard Haut
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Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1165
Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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Kevin
"noisy" is the word.
I cannot remember anything as confusing as the "climate change" for-and-against.
I hold a much simpler view - dirt is dirt. Fossil fuels are dirty - they always have been.
if (if) our activities as humans are damaging the planet - or even if they are not - the combination of producing filthy and toxic waste in vast quantities and squandering finite resources should be controlled.
what I do not agree with (unless there is genuine evidence) is for the world to be told that they will all be dead in just over a decade (Pentagon report: the year named was 2020).
the politicizing aspect of this is the wish by the Neo-Cons to use (abuse) extreme climate change for major population change and shift. It is as much a requirement for them as the new Pearl Harbour.
that is why Europe produces such things as the British TV programme referred to in the following article:
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2007/mar/06/20070306-122226-6282r/
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Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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Kevin
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
Posts: 1154
Location: Eugene, Oregon
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| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: |
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I hear your points.
Just as a side note - do watch out the for Washington Times. It was founded by the Moonies (seriously) and only masquerades as legitimate press. In fact it is anything but - like an internet troll, but in the paper press. If you can source that point from a better origin I look forward to following the link. |
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Richard Haut
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Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1165
Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: |
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I would have thought it obvious that the main source referred to in the link was the British television Channel 4 (the Post was reporting on the Channel 4 programme).
Yes, I am aware of the Moonie link to the Washington Post (I understood that they had handed rather a lot of cash to Poppy Bush as well).
try the Daily Telegraph instead.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3312921/The-deceit-behind-global-warming.html
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Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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Kevin
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
Posts: 1154
Location: Eugene, Oregon
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| Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the link. That commentary is quite a culdesac, really just a fantasy tissue of errors and distortions. I'd recommend giving more credence to mainstream scientific journals in the areas of science.
Science doesn't get everything right the first time, and it is people by human beings just like the rest of our culture. But unlike most of the rest of human culture, science includes relatively robust, systematic internal reality-check and correction mechanisms.
The fact that science gets most things right relative to Nature over time, is why we have cell phones and computers, GPS navigation and antibiotics for bacterial diseases.
It's an astonishing level of factual precision that makes these thing we take for granted work - developed far beyond the once-controversial correction of cultural belief in the relative rotation of Earth and Sun - a level of precision equal to the task, I believe, of accurately discerning long-term temperature trends and their overwhelming correlations.
Separating signal from noise. Hopefully not too late. |
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